摘要
强震是诱发山区地质灾害的重要因素之一,严重威胁人民生命财产安全、经济社会高质量发展和国家重大工程建设。随着国家重大工程的实施和城镇建设的快速发展,加之气候变化的影响,地震和极端气候诱发地质灾害的风险显著加剧。然而,目前仍缺乏对强震地质灾害链生演化机理和风险防控技术方法体系的系统研究。本文梳理了同震滑坡启动机理与易发性预测、震后地质灾害链演化机制与预测、强震地质灾害长期效应方面的国内外研究进展,提出“跨时空尺度的强震灾害链生演化规律与全过程动力学机理”和“数据与机理联合驱动的强震地质灾害风险预测”两个关键科学与技术问题。建议从地球系统科学角度出发,研究构造内动力和气候变化外动力对浅表层岩石圈层的影响,探究构造—气候—地貌相互作用下的地质灾害孕灾背景,建立长时序强震地质灾害数据库,揭示强震地质灾害时空演化规律;揭示斜坡地震动响应规律和跨尺度、多相多场、多因素耦合作用下的强震灾害链级联演化机理;发展基于动力学机理、人工智能与高性能计算深度融合的灾害链风险模拟预测新范式;通过多学科交叉和多部门联动,健全强震地质灾害应急响应和风险防控体系,支撑高效科学的国家自然灾害防治体系建设,为世界强震地质灾害研究与防控提供中国案例。
Strong earthquakes are one of the major triggers of geological hazards in mountains,posing severe threats to human lives,property security,high-quality socioeconomic development,and the safety of national infrastructure projects.With the rapid expansion of urban construction,the implementation of major national projects,and the intensifying impacts of climate change,the risks of geological hazards induced by earthquakes and extreme climate events have markedly increased.However,systematic studies on the chain evolution mechanisms of earthquake-triggered hazards and their risk prevention and control strategies remain insufficient.This paper reviews recent advances in three key aspects:The initiation mechanisms and susceptibility prediction of coseismic landslides,the post-seismic hazard chain evolution mechanisms and forecasting approaches,and the long-term effects of earthquake-triggered geological hazards.We identify two fundamental scientific and technical challenges:(1)understanding the cross-scale spatiotemporal evolution laws and dynamic mechanisms of strong-earthquake hazard chains,and(2)developing data-and mechanism-driven predictive frameworks for hazard risks.To address these challenges,we suggest adopting an Earth system science perspective to investigate how tectonic forces and climate change jointly affect the shallow lithosphere,and to explore the disaster-forming environments shaped by tectonic-climate-geomorphic interactions.This requires the establishment of a long-term database of strongearthquake-induced hazards to reveal their spatiotemporal evolution;the elucidation of slope seismic response processes and cascade evolution mechanisms under cross-scale,multiphase,multi-field,and multi-factor coupling;and the development of new paradigms for hazard chain risk simulation and prediction through the deep integration of dynamic process models,artificial intelligence,and high-performance computing.Furthermore,by promoting interdisciplinary collaboration and cross-sectoral coordination,it is essential to strengthen emergency response and risk prevention systems for strongearthquake-triggered hazards,thereby supporting the construction of an efficient and scientific national disaster prevention and control framework and contributing Chinese case studies to global research and mitigation of strong-earthquake geological hazards.
作者
范宣梅
戴岚欣
王欣
夏明垚
杜俊翰
刘杰
Xuanmei Fan;Lanxin Dai;Xin Wang;Mingyao Xia;Junhan Du;Jie Liu(State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,China)
出处
《中国科学基金》
北大核心
2025年第6期1016-1029,共14页
Bulletin of National Natural Science Foundation of China
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42125702,W2412050)
四川省重大科技专项(2024ZDZX0020)的资助。
关键词
强震地质灾害
灾害链生机理
监测预警
危险性预测
自然灾害防治体系
strong earthquake-triggered geological hazards
hazard chain mechanisms
monitoring and early warning
susceptibility prediction
natural hazard prevention and control system
