摘要
研究景观生态风险的时空动态与归因对优化生态安全格局和维护生态系统稳定有重要意义.基于土地利用视角及景观生态学理论构建景观生态风险指数,计算土地转移贡献率,结合半变异函数和空间自相关分析等方法探究四川盆地20 a来景观生态风险的时空动态变化,并采用空间计量模型进行归因分析.结果表明:1)2000—2020年四川盆地土地利用类型转换较强烈,景观格局变化明显.期内土地利用结构以耕地和林地为主,耕地向建设用地与林地转变较强烈,各土地利用景观面积和斑块数量的变化导致相应景观格局指数发生明显变化.2)四川盆地景观生态风险总体呈下降趋势,其空间分布格局基本保持不变.风险区转换以边缘扩张和收缩为主,风险区的集聚性下降,呈现出逐渐分散的趋势.3)研究区景观生态风险值受自然与社会经济因素双重影响.自然因素中的距河流距离和植被覆盖度具有显著的负向影响,社会经济因素中的GDP与受自然和社会双重影响的温度表现为显著的正向影响.研究结果可为四川盆地土地资源合理利用及景观生态风险防控提供一定参考.
Studying the spatio-temporal dynamics and attribution of ecological risks for landscape is important for optimizing the ecological security pattern and maintaining the stability of ecosystems.Based on the land use perspective and the theory of landscape ecology,we constructed a ecological risk index for landscapes,calculated the contribution rate of land transfer,combined the semi-variance function,spatial autocorrelation analysis and other methods to explore the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological risks for landscapes in the Sichuan Basin over the past 20 years,and used the spatial econometrics model to analyze the attribution.The results show that:1)The land use types in the Sichuan Basin from 2000 to 2020 were strongly transformed,and the landscape pattern changed significantly.During the period,the land use structure is dominated by cultivated land and forest land,and the transformation of cultivated land to construction land and forest land is stronger,and the changes in the area of the used landscape for each land and the number of patches lead to obvious changes in the corresponding landscape pattern index.2)The overall trend of ecological risks for landscapes in the Sichuan Basin is decreasing,and its spatial distribution pattern basically remains unchanged.The conversion of the risk area is dominated by edge expansion and contraction,and the agglomeration of the risk area declines,showing a trend of gradual dispersion.3)The ecological risk value for landscapes of the study area is influenced by both natural and socio-economic factors.The distance from the river and vegetation cover in the natural factors have a significant negative influence,where the GDP and temperature in the socio-economic factors influenced by both nature and society show a significant positive influence.The results of the study can provide some references for the rational utilization of land resources and the prevention and control of ecological risks for landscapes in the Sichuan Basin.
作者
李世强
张伟
LI Shiqiang;ZHANG Wei(College of Geography and Resource Science,Sichuan Normal University,Chengdu 610101,Sichuan)
出处
《四川师范大学学报(自然科学版)》
2025年第6期783-793,共11页
Journal of Sichuan Normal University(Natural Science)
基金
教育部人文社科规划项目(18XJA630005)。
关键词
土地利用变化
景观生态风险
景观格局指数
空间计量模型
四川盆地
land use change
landscape ecological risk
landscape pattern index
spatial econometric modeling
Sichuan Basin
