摘要
文章基于2011~2020年中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)和2008~2018年中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查(CLHLS)数据,构建了有信息先验的贝叶斯多状态模型,刻画了死亡概率修正后老年人口健康状态转移规律,测度了分城乡失能预期寿命与健康预期寿命。研究结果表明:(1)2020年,中国老年人失能预期寿命存在显著城乡差异。在绝对水平上,城镇老人轻度、中度与重度失能预期寿命显著长于乡村老人。在相对水平上,城镇老人重度失能预期寿命占比显著高于乡村老人;(2)2020年,60岁城镇老人健康预期寿命显著长于乡村老人;(3)城镇老年女性失能预期寿命占比显著高于乡村老年女性。文章建议加强城乡初级卫生保健体系建设与老年康复服务体系建设,建立城乡筹资公平的长期护理保险制度。
The Bayesian multi-state model with informative priors is constructed to characterize the health transition patterns of urban and rural older populations after adjusting for mortality,based on data from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)2011-2020 and the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey(CLHLS)2008-2018.It further measures DLE and life expectancy with varying degrees of disability.A theoretical explanation for the urban-rural disparities in DLE is provided based on the social-economic factors and the health promotion factors.The study reveals the following findings:(1)In 2020,urban older individuals exhibited significantly higher DLE compared to their rural counterparts.In absolute terms,the urban-rural disparities existed in the mild,moderate and severe DLE.In relative terms,the proportion of DLE in life expectancy of urban older female was significantly higher than that of rural older female.(2)In 2020,the healthy life expectancy of urban older individuals at 60 was higher than that of rural counterparts.(3)The proportion of severe DLE in life expectancy of urban older individuals was significantly higher than that of rural counterparts,which tended to expand with age.Efforts should be made to strengthen the primary healthcare systems and elderly rehabilitation service systems in urban and rural areas to reduce DLE.Additionally,an equitable financing system for long-term care insurance should be established to address urban-rural disparities.
作者
李逸超
米红
Li Yichao;Mi Hong
出处
《中国人口科学》
北大核心
2025年第4期113-128,共16页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
基金
国家社科基金重大项目“健康中国战略下我国居民健康预期寿命的测量与变动趋势研究”(编号:21&ZD186)的阶段性成果。
关键词
失能预期寿命
健康状态转移规律
城乡差异
贝叶斯方法
多状态模型
老年人口
Life Expectancy with Disability
Health Transition Pattern
Urban-Rural Disparities
Bayesian Method
Multi-State Model
Older Population
