摘要
柔性负荷的负荷预测与模态分析是构建可再生能源电力系统的重要内容。将建筑空调、电动汽车负荷作为研究对象,提出一种考虑不同时空特性的异构柔性负荷时空分布预测模型,对异构柔性负荷模态进行分析。首先,在负荷聚合商运营模式的基础上,构建高比例可再生能源电力系统的分层式物理架构。其次,结合出行链概念建立异构柔性负荷时空状态量,对异构柔性负荷及其影响因素进行建模研究,采用蒙特卡洛法计算得到负荷变化曲线。最后,以某城市的实际数据建立交通网络图,实现在不同条件下对异构柔性负荷的仿真计算。结果表明,环境温度对其负荷模态影响较大,冬、夏季异构柔性负荷之间呈现出较为明显的互补特性;不同充电区域的异构柔性负荷具有明显差异,电动汽车展现出远高于建筑空调的调节潜力;用户充电偏保守可以较好地平抑异构柔性负荷充电时的负荷波动。
Load prediction and modal analysis of flexible load are important contents of building a renewable energy power system.In this paper,the load of building air conditioning and electric vehicle is taken as the research object,and a spatiotemporal distribution prediction model of heterogeneous flexible loads considering different spatiotemporal characteristics is proposed,and the heterogeneous flexible load mode is analyzed.Firstly,based on the operation mode of load aggregators,a hierarchical physical architecture of a high-proportion renewable energy power system is constructed.Secondly,combined with the concept of travel chain,the spatiotemporal states of heterogeneous flexible load is established,the heterogeneous flexible load and its influencing factors are modeled and studied,and the load change curve is calculated by Monte Carlo method.Finally,the transportation network diagram is established based on the actual data of a specific city,and the simulation and calculation of heterogeneous flexible loads under different conditions are realized.The results show that the ambient temperature has a great influence on its load mode,and the heterogeneous flexible loads in winter and summer show obvious complementary characteristics.Heterogeneous flexible loads vary significantly across different charging areas,and electric vehicles show much higher regulation potential than building air conditioners.Users exhibit conservative charging behavior,which can better smooth out the fluctuation of heterogeneous flexible load charging load.
作者
温志鹏
宋显锦
杨冰
WEN Zhipeng;SONG Xianjin;YANG Bing(School of Electric Power and Architecture,Shanxi University,Taiyuan 030006,China;State Grid Beijing Electric Power Company,Beijing 100031,China)
出处
《山东电力技术》
2025年第7期1-13,共13页
Shandong Electric Power
关键词
异构柔性负荷
出行链
时空分布特性
负荷模态
蒙特卡洛
heterogeneous flexible loads
travel chains
spatiotemporal distribution characteristics
load mode
monte carlo
