摘要
本研究旨在探究东北三省大豆各级生产潜力时空变化规律及其变异系数、距平百分率、实现率等分布情况,提出生产潜力开发利用对策。以东北三省1961—2020年逐日气象数据和研究区大豆作物系数为基础,运用“逐步订正法”计算了东北三省各地大豆的光合、光温和气候生产潜力,在此基础上利用Arcgis进行分析。结果表明,东北三省生产潜力空间分布情况为光合生产潜力、光温生产潜力分布趋势都是由北向南递增,气候生产潜力是辽宁东部最高,吉林中部和黑龙江中南部次之,黑龙江西北部最低。光合生产潜力距平变化率在-18%~11%,变化区间接近30个百分点;光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力距平变化率范围都较大,有70~80个百分点。光合生产潜力变异系数大多在5%以下,光温生产潜力变异系数大多在10%以下,气候生产潜力的变异系数最高达到20%左右,最低也在10%以上,气候生产潜力较光温和光合生产潜力的稳定性较差。东北三省大豆实际产量空间分布情况与生产潜力实现率分布情况比较匹配,均为吉林中部和黑龙江东部较高,可选择在各级生产潜力实现率都较高的区域进行大豆扩种,适当提升高标准农田建设标准,兴建灌溉、排涝设施保证水资源的最优供应,将有效提升光温资源对于大豆产量提升的贡献。
Based on the daily meteorological data of the three provinces in Northeast China from 1961 to 2020 and the soybean crop coefficients of the research area,the progressive correction method was used to calculate the photosynthetic,photosynthetic temperature and climate production potential of soybeans in various regions of the three provinces in Northeast China.ArcGIS was used for analysis to explore the spatial and temporal variation laws of production potential at all levels,as well as its coefficient of variation,anomaly percentage,and realization rate.Countermeasures for the development and utilization of production potential were proposed.The results indicated that the spatial distribution of production potential in the three provinces in Northeast China was that the distribution trends of photosynthetic and photosynthetic temperature production potentials were increasing from north to south,and climate production potential was highest in eastern Liaoning,followed by central Jilin and south-central Heilongjiang,with the lowest in northwest of Heilongjiang.The photosynthetic production potential anomaly change rate was between-18%and 11%,with a change interval closing to 30 percentage points.The photosynthetic temperature production potential and climate production potential anomaly change rates had a wide range,with 70-80 percentage points.The coefficient of variation of photosynthetic production potential was mostly below 5%,while that of photosynthetic temperature production potential was mostly below 10%.The coefficient of variation of climate production potential was as high as about 20%,and the lowest was still above 10%.The stability of climate production potential was poorer than that of photosynthetic temperature and photosynthesis.The spatial distribution of actual soybean yield in the three provinces in Northeast China matched that of the realization rate of production potential,and both were higher in central Jilin and eastern Heilongjiang.We can choose to expand soybean cultivation in regions with higher realization rates of production potential at all levels,appropriately raise the construction standards of high-standard farmland,build irrigation and drainage facilities to ensure optimal water supply,and effectively improve the contribution of photosynthetic temperature resources to soybean yield increase.
作者
崔修来
米娜
童尧
孙瑶
原久淞
高智
王东
CUI Xiulai;MI Na;TONG Yao;SUN Yao;YUAN Jiusong;GAO Zhi;WANG Dong(Shenyang Institute of Atmospheric Environment,China Meteorological Administration,Shenyang 110166;China Yingkou Meteorological Bureau,Yingkou,Liaoning 115001)
出处
《农学学报》
2025年第7期74-83,共10页
Journal of Agriculture
基金
2021年中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所联合开放基金课题(2021SYIAEKFMS33)。
关键词
东北三省
大豆
气候
生产潜力
大豆扩种
生产潜力变化
生产潜力实现率
Three Northeastern Provinces
soybean
climate
production potential
soybean expansion
changes in production potential
production potential realization rate
