摘要
专精特新企业培育是发展新质生产力、完善现代化产业体系的重要举措。本文基于CSMAR中国专精特新企业研究数据库,运用随机森林算法研究发现影响专精特新“小巨人”企业认定的最重要因素从经营类因素逐渐演变为资产类因素,此结果在考虑了地区和产业异质性之后是稳健的。在此基础上,本文从地方政府视角出发,通过构建两阶段动态一般均衡理论模型对地方政府创新政策的转型绩效进行了反事实模拟,研究发现创新部门补贴比例的提高对专精特新企业融资能力的提升效果强于产业融通,同时创新政策的转型时点和转型力度具有正相关关系。机制研究表明地方政府创新政策转型对专精特新企业培育的影响主要通过创新部门和最终产品部门之间要素配置结构和技术创新路径的调整来实现。本文的研究结果既为中小企业参评专精特新“小巨人”提供了参考,又为地方政府专精特新企业培育方案优化提供了前瞻性预测,还为随机森林算法提供了经济学理论机制支撑。
It is crucial for the development of new quality productive forces and the modernization of the industrial system to cultivate SRDI enterprises.Based on the SRDI Enterprises Database published by CSMAR,this study uses the random forest algorithm to identify that the most important factors influencing the recognition of"Little Giant"enterprises have gradually shifted from operational factors to asset-related factors,which is robust after considering heterogeneity among regions and industries.In light of the result,a two-stage dynamic general equilibrium model is adopted to perform counterfactual simulations of innovation policy transformation from a local government perspective.The findings indicate that increasing the subsidy ratio for innovation sectors has a more significant impact on enhancing the financing ability of SRDI enterprises than industrial integration,where the timing and intensity of innovation policy transformation are positively correlated.Mechanism analysis reveals that the impact of innovation policy transformation on the cultivation of SRDI enterprises depends on adjustments in the factor allocation structure and technological innovation route between innovation sectors and final-product sectors.The results provide a reference for SMEs participating in the"Little Giant"recognition process,offer forward-looking predictions for optimizing local government policies for the cultivation of SRDI enterprises,and support the integration of random forest algorithms with economic theoretical mechanisms.
作者
刘朝煜
王胤奎
LIU Chao-yu;WANG Yin-kui(Institute of Economics,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,200020;Shanghai Lixin University of Accounting and Finance,201620)
出处
《上海经济研究》
北大核心
2025年第5期76-89,共14页
Shanghai Journal of Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“数据要素赋能培育新质生产力的理论机制与实践路径研究”(批准号:24BJL087)阶段性成果之一。
关键词
专精特新企业
地方政府
创新政策
随机森林算法
两阶段动态一般均衡
SRDI Enterprises
Local Government
Innovation Policy
Random Forest Algorithm
Two-Stage Dynamic General Equilibrium
