摘要
基于BNU-ESM模式2010—2099年的地球工程情景和非地球工程情景日值气温和降水数据,对比分析了两种情景下整个研究时段(2010—2099年)、地球工程实施期间(2020—2069年)和地球工程实施结束后(2070—2099年)的全球陆地气候格局及其差异特征。结果表明:(1)在气候格局上,两种情景下的全球陆地年均气温和降雨量在三个研究时段的空间高低分异格局基本一致,并未发生根本性的变化,地球工程并未颠覆原有的气候分布特征。全球陆地年均气温和降雨量在2010—2099年、2020—2069年和2070—2099年的空间相关系数分别为0.54、0.51和0.59与0.55、0.50和0.52(n=2658),均通过了0.01显著性水平的检验。(2)在气候差异上,三个研究时段的全球陆地年均气温在地球工程情景下相比非地球工程情景明显降低,有助于《巴黎协定》1.5℃和2.0℃温控目标的实现。其中2020—2069年全球陆地年均气温降低幅度最大,2010—2099年次之,2070—2099年最小。地球工程实施期间北半球陆地的降低幅度高于南半球陆地。在2010—2099年和2020—2069年,地球工程对全球陆地的年均降雨量以抑制作用为主,促进作用为辅,2070—2099年则以促进作用为主,抑制作用为辅,且具有明显的南北半球差异特征。地球工程实施期间北半球多数陆地的年均降雨量减少,而南半球陆地则增多。地球工程实施结束后北半球中低纬度的年均降雨量普遍增多。(3)在地球工程实施前后差异上,地球工程实施结束后相比实施期间,全球陆地年均气温明显增加,且北半球陆地增加幅度高于南半球陆地,北半球陆地高纬度地区高于北半球陆地低纬度地区。考虑到两种情景下的气温差异,地球工程情景下实施结束后的温升幅度仍未超过非地球工程情景。研究成果对于认识地球工程的气候影响具有参考意义。
Based on the datasets of daily temperature and precipitation under geoengineering and non-geoengineering scenarios from 2010 to 2099 of BNU-ESM model,the global land climate patterns and their differences in the whole study phase(2010—2099),the implementation period of geoengineering project(2020—2069)and after the completion of the implementation of geoengineering project(2070—2099)under the both the scenarios are compared and analyzed herein.The results show that:(1)On the pattern of climate,the high-low spatial difference patterns of global land annual mean land temperature and rainfall under both scenarios are basically the same without fundamental changes during the three study phases,thus the original characteristics of climate distribution pattern is not yet subverted by the geoengineering project.The spatial correlation coefficients of global land annual mean temperature and rainfall during the periods of 2010 to 2099,2020—2069 and 2070—2099 are 0.54,0.51 and 0.59 and 0.55,0.50 and 0.52(n=2658)respectively and all pass the test of significance level of 0.01.(2)On climate difference,the global land annual mean temperatures of the three study phases under geoengineering scenario are significantly lowered if compared with those under the non-geotechnical scenario and are favorable to achieve the temperature control targets of 1.5℃and 2.0℃.specified in the Paris Agreement;in which the lowering amplitude of the global land annual mean land temperature is the maximum during the period of 2020—2069 and is the minimum during the period of 2070—2099,while the lowering amplitude of the northern hemisphere is higher than that of the southern hemisphere during the implementation of geoengineering project.In the period of 2010—2099 and 2020—2069,the geoengineering project mainly plays an inhibiting role on the annual mean rainfall of the global land and subsidiarily plays an promotive role,which is just inverse during the period of 2070—2099 with obvious difference between the northern and southern hemispheres.During the implementation of the geoengineering project,the mean annual rainfalls are decreased in most of the northern hemisphere and increased in the southern hemisphere.After the completion of the implementation of geoengineering project,the mean annual rainfalls in the regions at mid-low latitudes of the northern hemisphere are generally increased.(3)On the difference before and after the difference before and after the implementation of geoengineering project,the global land annual mean temperature after the completion of it is significantly increased if compared with that during the implementation of it,while the increasing amplitude of the northern hemisphere is higher than that of the southern hemisphere and is higher in the region at the high latitude of the northern hemisphere than that in the region at the low latitude.Under the consideration of the temperature difference between both scenarios,the amplitude of temperature rise after the completion of the implementation period of geoengineering project does still not exceed that under the non-geoengineering scenario.This study result has a referential significance for understanding the climate impact of geoengineering project.
作者
孔锋
KONG Feng(School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;Center for Crisis Management Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;Training Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China)
出处
《水利水电技术》
北大核心
2020年第8期1-11,共11页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
基金
国家重大科学研究计划(2019YFC1510202,2018YFC1509003,2015CB953603)
中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2019T120114,2019M650756)
国家自然科学基金项目(41801064,41701103)
中亚大气科学研究基金(CAAS201804)。
关键词
地球工程
平均气温
降雨特征
气候变化
空间格局
区域差异
全球陆地
geoengineering
mean temperature
rainfall characteristics
climate change
spatial pattern
regional difference
global land
