摘要
针对传统的电网安全态势自动预测方法准确性低的情况,设计了一种基于多层模糊Petri网的跨区域电网安全态势自动预测方法。结合电网安全态势自动预测需求,建立预测指标体系,并计算跨区域电网中的安全态势值,得到电网状态所处的安全等级。在此基础上,建立电网安全态势自动预测模型,通过该模型对电网安全态势自动预测。设计实验,将传统方法和此次设计方法分别与实际的电网安全态势值对比,实验对比结果表明,此次设计的基于多层模糊Petri网的跨区域电网安全态势自动预测方法与实际值最大相差6%,传统方法与实际值相差58%,计算得知,传统方法与此次设计的方法最大相差52%,证明了此次设计的预测方法的准确性。
Aiming at the low accuracy of traditional automatic forecasting methods for power grid security situation,an automatic forecasting method for cross-regional power grid security situation based on multi-layer fuzzy Petri net is designed.Combining with the demand of automatic forecasting of power grid security situation,the index system of forecasting is established,and the security situation value of cross-regional power grid is calculated to get the security level of power grid status.On this basis,an automatic forecasting model of power grid security situation is established,which the power grid security situation is automatically forecasted.The experiment is designed to compare the traditional method and the designed method with the actual grid security situation value.The experimental results show that the maximum difference between the proposed method and the actual value is 6%,and the difference between the traditional method and the actual value is 58%.The maximum difference between the system method and the design method is 52%,which proves the accuracy of the prediction method of this design.
作者
张丞
王云霄
马琳
张文斌
于航
ZHANG Cheng;WANG Yunxiao;MA Lin;ZHANG Wenbin;YU Hang(Information&Telecommunications Company,State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company,Jinan 250001,China)
出处
《自动化与仪器仪表》
2020年第7期198-201,共4页
Automation & Instrumentation
基金
国网山东省电力公司科技项目:新一代网络安全智能防御关键技术研究(No.52062718009A)。
关键词
多层模糊Petri网
跨区域
电网
安全态势
自动预测
multi-layer fuzzy Petri net
cross-region
power grid
security situation
automatic prediction
