摘要
近几年,印度已成为对中国发起反倾销调查数量最多的国家而且呈现手段严苛,行业集中的特征。文章选取1997~2015年印度对中国反倾销的数量指标和强度指标作为被解释变量,对比了两者的样本差异;选取宏观经济、政治触发和国际环境三类指标10个因素作为解释变量。回归结果表明,宏观经济因素中,当期印度GDP实际增长率对印度对中国发起反倾销强度影响不显著。进口渗透率与印度对中国发起反倾销强度显著相关。在汇率方面,人民币升值,卢比贬值,印度对中国反倾销强度下降。政治因素中,印度对中国反倾销贸易报复效应显著,且存在贸易偏转效应,偏转效应会使印度减弱对中国发起反倾销的强度。国际环境因素中,中国加入WTO后,印度减轻了对中国反倾销的强度;金融危机也使得印度对中国的反倾销强度减弱。印度对中国反倾销的影响因素按照重要性依次为:印度对中国的贸易逆差、贸易相关性指数、汇率、贸易偏转效应和中国"入世"。文章认为,地缘政治冲突对印度对中国反倾销具有重要影响,贸易逆差已成为印度对中国实施反倾销的口实。
In recent years, India has the largest number against China, and the anti- dumping is harsh and industry of anti -dumping investigations concentrative. This paper chooses the number index and intensity index from 1997 to 2015 as a variable to be explained, and compares the differences between them; chooses macroeconomic, political trigger and international environment, these three kinds of index of I0 factors as explanatory variables. Regression results indicate that, as macroeconomic factors, current GDP real growth in India has no significant impact on India＇s anti-dumping against China. Import penetration is significantly related to the intensity of India＇s anti -dumping against China, RMB appreciation and Rupee devaluation lead to decrease of India＇s anti -dumping to China. As Political factors, trade retaliation effect is significant, and trade deflection effect makes India to reduce anti- dumping against China. As international environmental factors, China＇s accession to WTO and the financial crisis, India reduces anti -dumping to China. According to the importance, the influence factors of Indian anti -dumping against China are： India＇s trade deficit with China, correlation index, exchange rate, trade deflection effect and China＇s ＂＇WTO＂. The geopolitical conflicts have an important influence on Indian anti -dumping against China, trade deficit has become anti- dumping ammunition.
出处
《国际经贸探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第10期66-79,共14页
International Economics and Trade Research
基金
广东省社科基金(GD15YYJ03)
广东省教育厅项目(15Q18)
关键词
印度
反倾销
触发因素
报复效应
偏转效应
India
Anti-Dumping
Trigger Factors
Retaliation Effect
Deflection Effect
