摘要
为了研究近54年来甘肃省气候变化特征,根据甘肃境内28个气象站1960—2013年温度、降水数据,利用气候趋势分析、气候突变分析及Morlet小波分析等,分析甘肃省近54年来气温、降水变化特征。结果表明:(1)近54年来甘肃省的年均温总体呈上升趋势,年均降水量的总体上呈微弱增加趋势。(2)甘肃省中部地区处于暖湿化过程,而南部地区处于暖干化过程,北部地区仍然处于干旱化。(3)年均温在1994年前后出现明显的突变点,年均降水量正反序列曲线均未超过95%置信度线,但正反序列曲线在置信度区间内存在1个交叉点,出现在1993—1994年之间,有可能在1993—1994年发生突变;(4)Morlet小波分析显示,甘肃省年均温存在8年左右的显著变化周期,年均降水量的周期性较差。
The paper aims to study climate change of Gansu Province in the past 54 years. Based on the temperature and precipitation data of 28 meteorological stations which were distributed in Gansu Province from 1960 to 2013, general characteristics of temperature and precipitation variations were analyzed with rate of linear tendency analysis, Mann-Kendall break detector and Morlet wavelet analysis methods. The results showed that： （1） an increasing trend of average annual temperature obviously existed in Gansu Province in the past 54 years, and the increase of average annual precipitation was insignificant; （2） from spatial distribution display, the central regions of Gansu Province was becoming warmer and wetter in recent decades, while the southern regions was in a warming and drying process, and the northern regions was still in drought; （3） the mutation of average annual temperature was obvious around 1994, the average annual precipitation curve of the positive and negative sequence did not exceed the 95% confidence level line, but there was an intersection which appeared between 1993 and 1994, probably the mutation point; （4） results of Morlet wavelet analysis showed that average annual temperature had a significant change period of about 8 years, while the periodicity of average annual precipitation was poor.
出处
《中国农学通报》
2015年第23期175-181,共7页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
国家自然科学基金"陇东黄土高原刺槐林林分结构对侵蚀控制及生态耗水影响研究"(41461112)
关键词
气候变化
突变点
小波分析
甘肃省
climate change
mutation point
wavelet analysis
Gansu Province
