摘要
世界各国的经验表明,宏观经济平稳快速的发展为汽车市场的繁荣提供了基本保证,而汽车业的发展对又经济增长起着重大的推动作用。传统研究多集中于对汽车业和宏观经济单维度的考虑,本文基于宏观经济的潜力、发展、现状,利用因子分析将宏观经济与汽车业的发展情况看作是综合的、不可观测的、受其他因素影响的潜变量,构建了宏观经济波动与汽车业发展的多维度结构方程模型。运用2007-2012年间的月度数据,验证了宏观经济各因子与汽车业发展的互动效应及其各因子之间的作用路径,就宏观经济对汽车供应链的影响路径提出了汽车业发展的对策与建议。
The experience of countries around the macroeconomic provides the basic guarantee for the world shows that a steady and rapid development of car boom, and the development of the auto industry plays an important role on economic growth. Traditional research focused more consideration on the auto industry and macroeconomic single dimension. Based on the potential of macroeconomic, the development and current situation, this paper uses factor analysis to regard macro economy and the development of auto industry as comprehensive, unobservable latent variables affected by other factors. A multidimensional structural equation model of the development of the auto industry and the macroeconomic fluctuation is constructed. Using the monthly data during 2007 -2012, we have verified the interaction effect of each one of the macroeconomic factors and the automobile development. The effect pathways between every fac- tor of macroeconomic are also tested. At last, countermeasures and suggestions of the automobile develop- ment are proposed according to the macroeconomic impact on the automobile supply chain.
出处
《西南科技大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
2015年第2期67-71,共5页
Journal of Southwest University of Science and Technology:Philosophy and Social Science Edition
基金
四川省软科学科技计划项目(2013ZR0018)
中央高校基本科研业务费研究专项"复杂供应链网络环境下社会责任扩散机理及其管理研究"(skqy201324)
关键词
宏观经济波动
汽车业
结构方程模型
Macroeconomic fluctuation
Automobile industry
Structural equation model
