摘要
以生命周期假说为依据,通过引入人口年龄结构因素,构建了消费理论模型;利用2003～2011年的浙江省地市级面板数据,考察了少儿人口抚养比、老年人口抚养比与农村居民消费之间的关系.实证结果表明,少儿人口抚养比对农村居民消费呈显著的负向作用,少儿人口抚养比每增加1个单位,消费将平均减少0.044％;老年人口抚养比对农村居民消费呈显著的正向作用,老年人口抚养比每增加1个单位,消费将平均增加0.76％.当前浙江省少儿人口抚养比呈递减态势,而老年人口抚养比则呈递增态势,两者协同促进了农村居民的消费.
Based on life- cycle hypothesis, this paper constructs a consumption theory model by introducing the population age structure factor. Taking an advantage of Zhejiang municipal panel data in the year from 2003 to 2011, we examine the relationship between child dependency ratio, old - age dependency ratio with rural residents＇ consumption. The conclusions indicate that the child population dependency ratio has a significant negative impact on rural residents＇consump- tion, a one - unit increase of child population dependency ratio will reduce the consumption by an average of 0. 044% ;and the old -age population dependency ratio has a significant positive im- pact on rural residents＇ consumption, a one - unit increase of old - age population dependency ra- tio will increase the consumption by an average of 0.76%. At present, Child dependency ratio shows a decreasing trend, while old - age dependency ratio shows an increasing trend, both trends act synergistically in promoting the consumption of rural residents in Zhejiang province.
出处
《人口与发展》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第1期13-21,共9页
Population and Development
基金
浙江省第六次人口普查资料开发课题"浙江人口年龄结构对农村居民消费的影响研究"(浙人普办【2011】37号)
2012年CARD研究生科研基金项目"中国人口年龄结构对农村居民消费的影响研究"
关键词
农村人口年龄结构
农村居民消费
少儿人口抚养比
老年人口抚养比
the rural population age structure
consumption of rural residents
child dependencyratio
old - age dependency ratio
