摘要
采用河南省近20年的历时性数据资料,对其入境旅游的数据进行时间序列分析,利用时间变化强度指数模型,分析河南省入境旅游市场的时间序列演变的阶段性特征,在此基础上利用spss19.0统计软件,构建自相关图和偏相关图,判断时间序列的平稳性并建立指数平滑模型。研究结论表明,采用历时性数据资料所建立的时间变化强度指数模型和指数平滑模型,是符合历史发展规律的模型,其模型的决定系数较大,正态化的BIC值较小,说明模型与历时规律的拟合程度较高,偏差较小。在此基础上,预测未来河南省入境旅游市场规模的发展趋势,并对入境旅游发展提供相应建议。
By means of the diachronic data of Henan Province in recent twenty years, the paper conducts the time series analysis of in- bound tourism data for nearly twenty years to explore the characteristics of the time change intensity index model to analyze the time series evolution of inbound tourism market of Henan Province. Based on spssl9.0 statistical software, it builds the autocorrelation and partial correlation diagrams to judge the stability of the time series and establish the exponential smoothing model. Research findings show that, the time change intensity index model and the exponential smoothing model established by the diachronie data are consistent with the laws of historical development, whose determination coefficient is large, and the normal BIC value is small, indicating that the models are highly fitted with the diachrenic rules. On this basis, the paper predicts the development trend of the scale of the inbound tourism market in Henan Province, and provides suggestions for the development of inbound tourism in Henan Province.
出处
《企业经济》
北大核心
2014年第1期127-131,共5页
Enterprise Economy
基金
河南省软科学研究计划项目"工业化
城镇化和农业现代化协调发展的微观机制:基于农户视角"(批准号:132400410165)
关键词
河南省
入境旅游市场
时间变化强度指数
预测
Henan Province
inbound tourism market
time change intensity index
forecast
