摘要
针对基于气候指标的水文极端事件季节性变化趋势，采用洞庭湖地区岳阳气象站196l～2009年气象资料，应用Mann-Kendall秩次检验法及R／S检验法对日平均降水量和日最高、最低气温的季节性极端事件进行趋势变化分析。结果表明，近50年来该站各季度降水极端事件总体随时间呈上升趋势；温度极端事件除二季度极端高温日数呈微弱下降趋势外均呈上升趋势，与全球气候变暖趋势一致；各季度降水和温度极端事件未来变化趋势均与原趋势相反。
Aiming at the seasonal variation trend of hydrological extreme events based on the climatic indicator, based on the meteorological data from 1961 to 2009 at Yueyang meteorological station in Dongting Lake, Mann-Kendall test and R/S method are used to analyze the trend change of seasonal extreme events of average daily precipitation and daily the highest and the lowest temperature. The result indicates that in recent 50 years all the extreme precipitation events during each quarter at this station are generally on the upward trend with time; temperature extreme events are all on the rise trend in accordance with the global climate warming trend, except that in the second quarter the number of days at ex- treme high temperature is in slight decline; the future variation trends of extreme precipitation and temperature events at each quarter are all opposite to their original ones.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2013年第10期6-8,共3页
Water Resources and Power
基金
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(201001057
201001066)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41371052)
河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室专项经费资助项目(2011585512
2009585512)
