摘要
应用随机后悔最小化理论与随机效用最大化理论,分别建立RRM-MNL模型和RUM-MNL模型研究了出行方式选择行为。在模型参数、拟合优度方面对2个模型进行了比较,应用直接弹性分析了在交通管理措施评价方面的区别,并通过城际出行方式中的飞机、火车、长途汽车、小汽车4种出行方式数据进行实际验证。分析结果表明:相比于RUM-MNL模型,RRM-MNL模型能够描述在多属性方案选择过程中的部分补偿性决策行为和折衷效应,能更真实地反映实际出行行为选择过程;等待时间、出行时间和出行费用对飞机、火车和长途汽车3种出行方式的选择概率都具有弹性;在RRM-MNL模型中,等待时间对3种方式的弹性值分别较RUM-MNL模型的低7.30%、13.14%和7.70%。可见,对于同一属性变量,出行者具有不同的选择偏好,会表现出不同的选择行为。
Based on random regret minimization（RRM） theory and random utility maximization （RUM） theory, RRM-MNL model and RUM-MNL model were set up to research the choice behaviors of travel modes respectively. Aiming at RRM-MNL model and RUM MNL model, the parameters and the goodnesses of fit were compared, their difference on the evaluation of traffic management measures was analyzed through direct elasticity, and practical verification was carried out based on four travel data such as aircraft, train, coach and car during intercity travel. Analysis result shows that compared with RUM-MNL model, in RRM-MNL model, the partial compensatory decision-making behavior and compromise effect during the choice process of multi- attribute method are described better, and the choice process of travel behavior can be reflected more really. The choice probabilities of wait time, travel time and travel cost on three travel methods such as aircraft, train and coach have significant elaticities. In RRM-MNL model, the elasticities of wait time for aircraft, train and coach all are lower than those in RUM-MNL model, and reduce by 7.30o//00, 13.14% and 7.70% respectively. So, for the same attribute variable, while the traveler has different choice preferences, the different choice behaviors will be displayed. 4 tabs, 4 figs, 15 refs.
出处
《交通运输工程学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第3期67-72,100,共7页
Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering
基金
National Natural Science Foundation of China(51008190,50878129)
Research Foundation of Selecting and Training Outstanding Young Teachers in Shanghai Universities(sdj10009)
Research Foundation of Shanghai Dianji University(10C201)
Key Subject Construction Project of Shanghai Dianji University(10XKJ01)
关键词
交通规划
出行方式
随机后悔最小化
随机效用最大化
部分补偿性决策
折衷效应
直接弹性
traffic planning
travel mode
random regret minimization
random utility maximization
partial compensatory decision-making
compromise effect
direct elasticity
