摘要
战后伊拉克石油产量恢复增长,原油出口量逐年回升,三大油田项目实现初始产量目标,艾哈代布油田顺利投产。2010年10月,伊拉克举行了第三轮油气田招标。随着中标油田的进一步开发,未来伊拉克的油气产量将大幅攀升,但由于受欧佩克可能限产、基础设施薄弱、出口能力不足以及油田开发建设条件等因素影响,预计伊拉克政府在2017年使原油产量增加到1200万桶/日以上的计划难以实现。目前,伊拉克正处于石油工业重建的历史转折期,政局前景未明,安全形势依然严峻,国际石油公司可能面临重新谈判合同的新形势;但同时,伊政府计划大力发展国内基础设施,大力发展天然气和炼油行业,外国石油公司在伊的机遇大于挑战,可择机参与配套基础设施项目。从长期看,伊拉克油气产量增长将给世界石油市场带来显著影响和冲击,伊拉克将在世界油气格局中发挥更加重要的作用。
Iraqi oil production is gradually increasing,and in May 2011 crude exports reached their highest level since the 2003 United States-led invasion.The three major oil fields have reached initial production targets and Ahdab Oilfield has also gone into production.In October,2010,Iraq launched a third round of licensing.With development of the oil fields by IOCs under signed contracts with Iraq's oil ministry,Iraq's oil production will increase significantly.However,Iraqi oil production is unlikely to reach 12 million barrel per day by 2017,because OPEC may allocate a new quota to Iraq to limit oil production,Iraq' s oil and gas infrastructure was heavily damaged during the occupation,oil export capability could not keep up with the development of Iraq's major oil fields as Iraq remains in the process of reconstructing it's oil and gas industry,which faces new uncertainties from a new government that has not been completely constituted yet and from a challenging security situation,and Iraq's oil ministry may renegotiate contracts signed with IOCs as Iraq takes active measures to help develop its major oil fields and plans to develop its gas industry in the next decade with policies attracting foreign company investment in its refining industry.Foreign companies face more opportunities than challenges,and should invest in appropriate projects in the long run,as Iraq's oil production has an ever greater impact on the world market and an ever greater role in balancing world oil supply and demand.
出处
《国际石油经济》
2011年第6期66-71,112,共6页
International Petroleum Economics
