摘要
从治理通货膨胀的角度,人民币升值通常面临"两难困境",即汇率升值在通过进口贸易渠道降低商品计价的同时,也将引发"热钱"流入形成大量外汇占款,从而通过资产市场抬升居民消费价格水平。基于此,本文选择货币供应量、房地产销售价格、上证综合指数和深证综合指数四个中间变量来构建人民币名义汇率与国内商品价格的VAR模型,研究结论显示:首先,人民币升值并不能通过进口贸易渠道直接降低国内价格水平,加快人民币升值以抑制通货膨胀并非有效;其次,房地产价格在汇率变动的价格效应中具有较强的传递功能,人民币升值在带来房地产价格上升的同时,也进一步提高了居民消费价格水平;最后,人民币汇率变动对于价格的影响具有很强的滞后效应,其持续影响周期为8-9个月。
From the standpoint of fighting inflation, there is a dilemma in the appreciation policy of RMB, which is that appreciation, lowers the price of imported products; contrarily, triggers Hot Money inflowing to China to upraise the CPI by investing the assets. Based on this discussion, this paper wants to choose money supply, real estate sale price, and Shanghai ＆ Shenzhen composite index as intermediate variables to build a VAR model analyzing the relationship between RMB nominal exchange rate and CPI. Some conclusions are drawn： firstly, RMB appreciation will not lower the CPI directly by trade channels, so quickening RMB appreciation to fight inflation is not effective; secondly, real estate price performs well in the channel of RMB influencing CPI, which is upraised by RMB appreciation, and improves on the CPI; lastly, strong hysteresis effect existed in the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation to CPI, and its shock period is about 8 to 9 months.
出处
《上海行政学院学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第4期53-64,共12页
The Journal of Shanghai Administration Institute
基金
国家自然科学基金"增强自主创新能力提升经济增长质量研究"(71073076)
国家社科基金重大招标项目"贯彻落实科学发展观与加快转变经济发展方式研究"(07&ZD009)
江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目的阶段性成果之一
