摘要
日光温室内湿度环境的调控是设施农业生产监测与预测的重要内容,现以季节性时间序列模型的理论和方法,以石家庄高邑地区的代表温室内,2008年10月—2009年6月间的月平均日湿度值为分析数据,建立了当地温室的日湿度AR(p)模型,用实测数据与模型的预测数据相比较,均方根误差RMSE和相对误差RE分别为9.90和-8.65%,说明时间序列模型能较好地拟合与预测日湿度的变化趋势,可为日光温室的湿度环境合理调控提供理论依据和决策支持。
Control of humidity environment in greenhouse is an important item of humidity monitoring and forecasting.In this paper,the method of seasonal time-series analysis was proposed to predict the air humidity of sunlight greenhouse,the data collected from Oct.2008 to June 2009 in some Gaoyi greenhouse which is representative in Shijiazhuang area was studied.Using the theories and methods of seasonal time series model,an AR （p） model to forecast the local greenhouse inner daily humidity was built up.By comparing the measured value with the estimated value,the RMSE and the average RE were 9.90,-8.65%,it is showed that the AR model can preferably fit the greenhouse inner humidity,and also can be used theory instruction and management supplying in sunlight humidity environment control.
出处
《中国农学通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第22期407-412,共6页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
科技部农业资金转化项目"日光温室低温寡照灾害监测预警评估技术推广"(2008GB24160441)
关键词
温室湿度
季节性时间序列
模型
预测预报
greenhouse inner humidity
seasonal time series
model
forecast
