摘要
以贝叶斯条件概率为基础的证据权法模型是基于地理信息系统的油气资源评价的常用方法之一,在分析塔里木盆地库车坳陷天然气成藏条件的基础上,首先在该系统中建立了烃源层、盖层、储集层、断层和压力等7个地质证据图层,然后用证据权重模型结合该系统的叠置分析功能,计算出各证据图层的权重参数并进行独立性检验,最后生成研究区天然气资源勘探潜力的后验概率图,按照后验概率相对大小把预测区成藏可能性划分成Ⅳ级,将Ⅱ级以上分区定为天然气成藏有利靶区,从而为库车坳陷进一步勘探提供决策支持。
Evidence weight method based on Bayesian conditional probability is a common method for oil and gas resource assessment using geographical information system （GIS）.After analyzing the natural gas reservoir-forming conditions of Kuqa depression in Tarim basin,this paper created seven geological evidence layers including source bed,caprock,reservoir,fault and strata pressure.By the evidence weight method integrated with overlay analysis of GIS,the weight of every layer is given and independence test of every two layers is made.At last,a posterior probability map of gas exploration potential is presented,by which the study area is classified into four grades,of which Ⅱgrade areas are defined target areas.
出处
《新疆石油地质》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第3期300-303,共4页
Xinjiang Petroleum Geology
关键词
油气地质异常
地理信息系统
叠置分析
证据权法
库车坳陷
oil geological anomaly
geographic information system （GIS）
overlay analysis
evidence weight method
Kuqa depression
