摘要
对一个20km高水平分辨率区域气候模式(RegCM3)所模拟的全球变暖背景下,中国区域未来不同强度降水事件变化进行了分析。以日降水量的大小,将降水划分为不同等级。首先检验了模式对当代(1961—1990年)各等级降水日数的模拟能力,结果表明,与观测相比,模式模拟的小雨事件偏多而大雨事件在南方过少。21世纪末(2071—2100年)在IPCC SRES A2温室气体排放情景下,中国区域不同强度降水的变化在各地表现不同,同时其对各个地区降水总量变化的贡献也表现出较大不同,但在大部分地区,模式给出了未来强降水事件将增加的结果。
Based on the multi-decadal climate change simulations from the RegCM3 model with a resolution of 20 km,changes in precipitation events of different intensities in 2071-2100 under the SRES A2 scenario were analyzed.The events were classified to RR1（1-10 mm/d）,RR10（10-20 mm/d） and RR20（≥20 mm/d） according to the daily rainfall.Verification of the model performances in simulating present（1961-1990） distribution of the rainy days was firstly carried out.The results show an overestimation of RR1（light rain days） and a general underestimation of RR20（heavy rain days） in southern China by the model as compared to the observations.Under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario in the end of the 21st century（2071-2100）,the projection shows different changes in the RR1,RR10 and RR20 events over different areas,with a general increase in heavy rain events over most of China.The slight increase in annual mean rainfall in China is basically contributed by the increase in heavy rain events.
出处
《气候变化研究进展》
CSCD
2010年第3期164-169,共6页
Climate Change Research
基金
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2009CB421407)
公益性行业科研专项(气象-GYHY200806010,林业-200804001)
国家自然科学基金项目(40975041)
关键词
气候变化
区域气候模式
降水
极端事件
climate change
regional climate model
precipitation
extreme events
