摘要
官方和一些学者认为当前我国"扩大内需最大潜力在农村",本文不同意这种观点。本文从当前城乡居民的实际消费水平、2000年以来的城乡居民实际消费变动趋势及未来影响消费需求的主要因素入手展开实证分析。研究表明,无论是过去还是现在、无论是平均支出水平还是总体消费规模,城市居民的实际消费和潜在消费能力均远远大于农村;即使着眼于未来中长期的发展态势,由于农民增收困难和随着工业化、城镇化进程导致的城市人口比重的不断增大,扩大内需的最大潜力依然在城市,而不在农村。为此,本文建议中央政府以扩大内需为目标的决策判断和政策措施重点应该以城市为主、农村为辅。
This paper does not agree with the viewpoint that 'the rural areas have the greatest potential to expand domestic demand',which is believed by the government and some scholars.This paper conducts the empirical analysis from the viewpoints of the real consumption level of urban-rural residents in the current China,the real consumption change trends since 2000,and the main factors impacting residents' future consumption demand.The result shows that the real and the potential consumptions(the average consumption expenditure and the overall consumption)of urban residents are far more than that of the rural residents in the past and also in nowadays China.And even focusing on the future medium and long-term development trend,the greatest potential to expand domestic demand still remains to be in the urban areas rather than in the rural areas,because of the difficulties of increasing farmers' income,and the increasing proportion of urban population with the accelerated industrialization and urbanization process.Consequently,this paper suggests that the government's judgments,decisions,and policies of domestic demand expansion should focus on the urban areas with higher priority and then the rural areas.
出处
《农业经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第1期41-45,共5页
Issues in Agricultural Economy
