摘要
针对工程项目的返工迭代现象造成项目的进度风险和费用风险,提出了改进的项目风险指数模型,并建立仿真模型分析单一风险和组合风险。在任务执行时间不确定和最优执行顺序已知的条件下,考虑费用与进度的关系服从Weibull分布,同时还考虑返工迭代的随机性和学习效应对项目进度的影响。通过仿真算例分析,验证了风险指数模型描述项目风险的有效性和动态性。
The design structure matrix method is used in risk estimate and control of project management. An improved risk index model is proposed for schedule risk and cost risk by reason of rework iteration. The simulation model based on design structure matrix is applied to analyze single risk and combination risk in large-scale project. On the condition of uncertain execute time and given optimal execute sequence of tasks, relation between cost and schedule is Weibull distribution. Random nature of rework iteration and learning effect are also taken into consideration during executing process. Simulation example proves that the risk index for project management is validity and dynamicity.
出处
《科技进步与对策》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第21期81-84,共4页
Science & Technology Progress and Policy
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70871002)
关键词
风险指数
学习效应
返工
仿真
Risk Index
Learning Effect
Rework
Simulation
