摘要
以水资源的供需关系作为衡量水资源承载力是否超负荷的依据，利用统计资料，分析了长春市水资源现状。以水资源利用量为因变量．采用主成分分析方法在GDP、工业总产值、总人口数、工业需水量和农业需水量等9个与水资源利用量密切相关的指标中筛选出GDP和农业人口2个因子作为自变量，利用多元线性回归分析模型，通过对GDP和农业人口的增长预测了未来10年长春市水资源需求量变化。结果表明，未来10年长春市水资源供需矛盾十分突出，水资源承载力超负荷，水资源无法维持经济和社会的正常发展。根据长春市水资源的形势，从开源、节流和管理等几方面提出了水资源的可持续利用对策。
Based on the relationship between water supply and demand to weigh the water resource stress, the actuality of Changchun city was analysed by using statistic data. Taking the water use as a dependent variable, from nine factors closely related to water uses including gross domestic product （GDP）, industrial output value, total population, industrial water demand, agricultural water demand, and etc., two factors, namely, GDP and agricultural population, were screened out as independent variables by factor analysis method. The stress of water resources in Changchun in the next decade was projected according to the increases of those two screened out variables by multi-variated linear regression model. It has shown that a great conflict between the supply and demand of water resources in Changchun would be emerging in the next decade, and the water resource availability would hardly be able to sustain the socio-economic development in a normal way. In view of such a status in Changchun, some measures for the sustainable utilisation of water resources have been put forward in several aspects including exploring new resources and conservation.
出处
《上海环境科学》
CAS
CSCD
2007年第3期97-101,共5页
Shanghai Environmental Sciences
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目，编号2004CB4185007。
关键词
水资源
水资源承载力
多元线性回归模型
可持续利用
对策
Water resources Water resource availability Multi-variated linear regression model Sustainable utitisation Measures
