摘要
世界经济正处于新一轮经济周期的上升期。2004年世界经济强劲增长5.1%,2005年,经济增速将有所回落,但发展势头良好。美国经济仍是世界经济的引擎,亚洲是世界经济增长中心,发展中国家经济已进入发展的黄金期。今后5～10年,世界经济增幅有望快于上世纪80～90年代。原因是:1)“新经济”逐渐复苏,推动了新一轮科技创新,国际技术合作升温,企业战略联盟加强,企业业务外包盛行,学科间交叉融合深化,再次凸现了科技对世界经济的拉动作用;2)国际贸易再次活跃,在未来数年中,国际贸易增长将快于世界经济增长,再次成为拉动世界经济发展的重要因素;3)外国直接投资恢复增长,跨国并购再度活跃;4)各国通胀压力依然不大,未来数年各国央行仍能维持中性利率政策,宏观经济环境依然宽松。在油价持续走高的情况下,世界经济依然走强,表明高油价对世界经济的影响减弱,世界经济的发展势头不可逆转。
Registering an impressive growth rate of 5.1% in 2004, the global economy is entering a new round of robust expansion. The growth will slow down a bit in 2005, but the momentum for the development will be sustained. The USA still acts as the powerhouse of the global economy, while Asia dominates the landscape of the global economic boost, and the developing economies are embracing the prime for their development. Over the next 5 to 10 years, the world economy is estimated to post a growth rate higher than that registered in the 1980s and 1990s as a result of the following factors. First, the rejuvenation of the 'new economy' is triggering a new round 9 R of technical innovation. The continued increase in the international technical cooperation, coupled with reinforced strategic alliances among businesses, sustained expansion of business outsourcing and interfusion among different disciplines, serves as a strong reminder of the critical role played by science and technology in spurring the global economy. Second, the reinvigorating international trade, which, as projected, is to develop faster than the world economy in the years to come, will emerge again as one of the leading forces behind the global economic growth. Third, the rise in foreign direct investment and transnational M&A. Fourth, the low pressure for inflation among most countries in the world will keep their central banks following their neutral interest policies over the next a few years, giving rise to a relatively loose macro economic environment. The steady growth of the global economy despite the sustained rise in oil price points to the weakening effect of a high oil price upon the global economy. Nothing could now reverse the trend of advance of the world economy.
出处
《国际石油经济》
2005年第6期9-13,共5页
International Petroleum Economics
